Coming the long way: wind forecast and imbalance prices

Last week wind generation accounted for 56% of the generation mix on an all-island basis. The market also saw significant volatility in the Balancing Market (BM), with the Single Electricity Market Operator (SEMO) receiving pricing disputes related to early trading in the BM.

While there has been much discussion about the volatility arising in imbalance settlement, there is an interaction with System Operator (SO) forecasting that has been neglected in the public discussion to date.

In this week’s blog, we look back at EirGrid’s wind forecast performance in 2018 and highlight the impact that this trend could have on imbalance prices in I-SEM.

Click here to view full article
Low carbon generation
Emma Burns

Emma Burns

Related thinking

Energy storage and flexibility

System operators warn of System Alerts risk this winter

EirGrid and SONI issued their Winter Outlook for 2020-21 on 15 October in which they warned that if high generator forced outage rates continue over the winter period there is a risk of System Alerts. The transmission system operators (TSOs) said the all-island capacity margin this winter is predicted to be 929MW...

Energy storage and flexibility

Imbalance prices rise for sixth consecutive month

This week we delve into system imbalance pricing, and look at the latest movements from the Balancing Market (BM). The BM ultimately reflects the actions taken by the transmission system operator to keep the system balanced. These actions determine the Imbalance Settlement Price (ISP) for each of the half-hourly settlement...

Low carbon generation

New policy measures needed to drive renewable generation

Published on 24 August, a new report by Energy Storage Ireland and the Irish Wind Energy Association (IWEA) called for action to strengthen Ireland’s electricity grid. The second of a series of four studies which make up the government’s 70 by 30 Implementation Plan, Saving Power outlines how to minimise dispatch down and increase the use...

Low carbon generation

Analyse thy neighbour: Interconnectors and their importance to future power prices

Whilst we build towards 2021 and post-Brexit energy markets, focus has been applied to how we in GB strive towards net zero ambitions with a more independent policy agenda. However, regardless of future trading arrangements, interconnectors with EU nations will continue to play a pivotal role in driving wholesale power...

Low carbon generation

All-Island wind dispatch-down rises year-on-year

On 17 September, EirGrid published its Annual Renewable Energy Constraint and Curtailment Report 2019 which sets out the amount of wind and, for the first time, solar energy, that is available but cannot be used by the system (i.e. the dispatch-down of energy). Overall, the dispatch-down of energy from wind in Ireland...

Energy storage and flexibility

EirGrid and SONI assess future demand and generation landscape

Transmission system operators (TSOs) EirGrid and SONI have issued the All-Island Generation Capacity Statement 2020-29 that sets out expected electricity demand together with the level of generation capacity that will be required over the next ten years.  Issued on 27 August, the Statement said RoI demand is increasing, and is forecast...

Low carbon generation

Demand trends: August sees highest demand since March

This article was originally published on 25 August 2020 in our ‘SEM and commodity pricing report’.   In this week’s blog we take a look at the latest fundamental developments impacting power prices in the SEM. This will see us take a look at wind generation in the SEM this year, while...

Commercial and market outlook

Changes: how our Spectrum service is evolving

This article was originally published on 9 June 2020 in our ‘Energy Spectrum Ireland’ publication.  Since Cornwall Insight launched the Energy Spectrum Ireland Service in 2015, it has been providing insight on key developments in the energy markets in Ireland. With the macro market trends of decarbonisation, decentralisation and digitilisation,...