Benchmark power curve | Australia

The ‘Benchmark power curve’ is a comprehensive market and asset-level power price modelling service. It includes long-term price forecasts which are supplemented with direct access to our trusted practitioners.

There are concerns that there is a drift between typical power price modelling and real-life market practice, as well as a lack of adequate explanation of why long-term price forecasts change. This is one of the reasons why our quarterly report coverage includes regulatory developments, policy direction and the development of the physical network, delivering a comprehensive yet focussed outlook on the prospects for the National Electricity Market (NEM).

We use scenario-based “Neutral, High and Low” 20-year projections of electricity prices in Australia’s NEM. Coverage includes average spot prices, captured prices per technology, base volatility forecasts, and time-weighted prices presented in real values of the day and at 30-min granularity.

The scenarios are not just snapshots of future market trends, but they also capture within-day commercial impacts (including volatility) of many future developments including interconnection, retirements and renewable energy zone (REZ) developments.

The ‘Benchmark power curve’ takes a technology-agnostic approach with the report, including price curves for all technologies in the NEM. It also fully reflects price and value-capture based on the different operating regimes, load profiles, and asset portfolio of various stakeholders. The modelling captures the effect of location on different asset classes as well as the drivers behind the trends.

Data outputs can be simply integrated with your financial modelling and business plan templates at 30-minute granularity.

Cornwall Insight Australia’s team of experts provide a wraparound support service to assist with the interpretation of results.

Key benefits

  • Understand the range of credible long-term electricity prices captured by different technologies
  • Incorporate asset level price curves into project/portfolio financial models
  • Benchmark and assess the value delivered by different routes to market

Who is it for?

  • Banks and debt providers
  • Equity investor/developer
  • Financial advisor
  • Operator and trader

Lumi Adisa

Lumi looks after the ‘Benchmark power curve’.

Telephone: +61 460 335253

Email: l.adisa@cornwall-insight.com.au

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