Australian Chart of the week | December 2020: when Santa brought low temperatures & prices

With just about half of summer left to go, many keen NEM observers would agree that it has been a pretty mild journey so far; at least as far as the NEM is concerned. But how mild are we talking here?

In this ‘Chart of the week’, via a time-of-day analysis, we examine demand and pricing for the first full month of summer (December 2020) in Victoria. Comparing events from last month with previous years, we provide commentary on drivers for these rather unique outcomes, as well as the impact the ongoing energy transition is having on prices in the NEM.

To keep reading, please log in to your account

Alternatively, please sign up to receive free market insight online and direct to your inbox

Related thinking

Low carbon generation

Australian Chart of the week | 3 2 1… fight: VRE and price cannibalisation in NEM

In the last decade, the rapid decline in deployment cost of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation capacity has given renewables an advantage over fossil fuels for new builds as highlighted in ‘Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020’ report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In the report, Australia has...

Low carbon generation

Australian Chart of the week | Two roller coaster rides for the price of one? Preliminary vs final MLFs

In recent years, movements in marginal loss factors (MLFs) have received significant attention in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Many renewable projects in remote areas have experienced material MLF reductions as more supply connects nearby. For example, the MLF for Broken Hill Solar Farm saw a whopping 50 ppt drop...

Low carbon generation

Price trends for Renewables Gas Guarantees of Origins

In May 2021 we published the findings from our latest quarterly Green Certificates Survey. The survey is designed to provide greater market transparency for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO), Continental Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and Renewable Gas Guarantees of Origin (RGGO) certificate markets. It provides aggregated views on certificate...

Low carbon generation

Australian Chart of the week | “I feel the earth move under my feet”: from high to lows

We have seen a dramatic shift in FCAS price fortunes over the past year or so, going from all-time highs of ~$229.3mn in Q1 of 2020 (due to the separation event) to only ~$40.1mn in Q1 2021. Since 2019 we have also seen regulation raise prices decline from robust prices...

Low carbon generation

Australian Chart of the week | NEM wind generation: Do birds of a feather flock together?

With a growing expectation that coal plants will face early retirement, this week’s ‘Chart of the week’ examines the correlation between different wind patterns in the various identified Renewable Energy Zones in the NEM. As would be expected, there is a tendency of high correlation within the individual states, where...

Energy storage and flexibility

Australian Chart of the week | Winds of change: Victoria and its unique afternoon ‘belly bump’

To say the transition is well and truly underway in the Australian NEM is not exactly news. In the last year alone, renewables have delivered record shares in generation mix across the NEM. Whilst solar is the technology often in the news given its impact on both operational demand, mid-day...

Low carbon generation

Australian Chart of the week | Gassed out: are renewables running gas out of the market?

Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released its ‘Quarterly Energy Dynamics’ (QED) report for Q4 2020. The report highlighted that operational demand has fallen to its lowest quarterly level since 2001; largely driven by mild weather and strong uptake of rooftop solar. Coupled with record high wind and...

Energy storage and flexibility

Australian Chart of the week | Yesterday, [battery storage] was such an easy game to play

FCAS continues to drive the majority of revenues for battery storage in the NEM (there are five active utility-scale battery storage projects operating in the NEM; three in SA and two in VIC), however given the forecast pipeline of prospective storage projects (with two 500MW+ projects having already been announced...