Australian Chart of the week | Prices in the NEM: Is variability the new black?

The price escalation in the NEM in recent years has been well documented. Closure of ‘low-cost’ coal generation (particularly Hazelwood) has seen average prices in the NEM increase significantly. This is a result of the overall supply/ demand balance tightening. Some of this tightness has been alleviated by the significant development of variable renewable energy. However, with this comes new challenges. The changing generation mix is resulting in price outcomes that are becoming increasingly variable over the day. In this week’s Chart of the week, we investigate the growing opportunities for price arbitrage, particularly at the daily resolution.

To keep reading, please log in to your account

Alternatively, please sign up to receive free market insight online and direct to your inbox

Related thinking

Energy storage and flexibility

Grid works hard for the money: an annual look back at BSUoS

This weeks Chart of the Week takes a look at the costs incurred from balancing the electricity system over the last 12 months. The cost of all the actions and day-to-day operation of the electricity system are recovered through Balancing Services Use of System (BSUoS) charges. This changes in each...

Business supply and services

SME’s interest in renewables driven by corporates

Despite the challenging year for businesses, we recorded growing interest in renewable electricity amongst businesses and Third Party Intermediaries (TPIs) according to our TPI Satisfaction Survey for 2020. This has been a focus for Industrial and Commercial's (I&Cs) over the last two years driven by corporate social responsibility goals, particularly...

Home supply and services

900,000 domestic customers impacted by SoLR over last two years

Across 2020 and 2019, 887,000 domestic customers were supplied by a company which exited the market via the Supplier of Last Resort mechanism (SoLR). On average, this is around 1.7% of the market per year. In 2018, 551,000 domestic customers were supplied by a company which entered the Supplier of...

Low carbon generation

Australian Chart of the week | 3 2 1… fight: VRE and price cannibalisation in NEM

In the last decade, the rapid decline in deployment cost of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation capacity has given renewables an advantage over fossil fuels for new builds as highlighted in ‘Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2020’ report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In the report, Australia has...

Commercial and market outlook

Australian Chart of the week | Two roller coaster rides for the price of one? Preliminary vs final MLFs

In recent years, movements in marginal loss factors (MLFs) have received significant attention in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Many renewable projects in remote areas have experienced material MLF reductions as more supply connects nearby. For example, the MLF for Broken Hill Solar Farm saw a whopping 50 ppt drop...

Low carbon generation

The outlook for private wire business models

Interest in private wire arrangements has grown in recent years, with the benefits of network and policy cost avoidance becoming a key incentive for generators to look at this development approach. In this Chart of the Week, we look at the expected evolution of cost avoidance over the next five...

Low carbon generation

Price trends for Renewables Gas Guarantees of Origins

In May 2021 we published the findings from our latest quarterly Green Certificates Survey. The survey is designed to provide greater market transparency for Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO), Continental Guarantees of Origin (GoOs) and Renewable Gas Guarantees of Origin (RGGO) certificate markets. It provides aggregated views on certificate...

Regulation and policy

Taking charge: the MHHS implementation levy

On 10 June the BSC Panel approved the Market-wide Half Hourly Settlement (MHHS) Implementation Charge for 2021-22. The new charge, introduced under modification P413 Market-wide Half Hourly Settlement Programme Manager, will cover Elexon’s programme management costs for MHHS implementation. It will be levied on suppliers on a monthly basis, based...