Forecasts from our ‘Benchmark power curve’ suggests that up to ~46GW of new build renewable technology, ~11GW onshore wind, ~10GW solar and ~25GW offshore wind, may need to be developed by 2030. This is to keep pace with 2050 net zero targets.
This large-scale deployment of very low/zero marginal cost wind and solar technologies, as well as increasing interconnection in the 2020s, is likely to have a depressive impact on wholesale power prices out to 2030.
Further modelling also shows that with an increase in high intermittent generation levels, it is likely the market will see a corresponding rise in price volatility.
The net zero target is defining the shape of the future power market in terms of absolute value and volatility.
This is certainly true in the period to the 2030s before we see material changes in power demand from widespread electrification in heat and transport.James Brabben, Wholesale Manager